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Shrivastava, R (2020) Development of risk management model for construction of railway project in India, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Petroleum and Energy Studies (India).
- Type: Thesis
- Keywords: cost overrun; economic development; reliability; uncertainty; capital expenditure; investment; risk management; public infrastructure; India; factor analysis; project performance; Monte Carlo simulation; railway; infrastructure project
- ISBN/ISSN:
- URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10603/371233
- Abstract:
The overrun of the projects in terms of time and cost are considered to be one of the major concern of Indian railway project. Any overrun would result in tremendous losses for the nation, such losses can be caused by the project's risk and uncertainty and poor risk management in projects. Overrun is a common phenomenon, affecting nearly all railway projects. The limited effort has been made, however, to limit the occurrence of overrun, this research tries to identify the significant risk factor causing the time & cost overrun and developed risk management model for railway projects in India. This research is compiled in nine chapters. Chapter one sets the briefs on background of the study. It highlights the background and significance of Infrastructure for economic development and problem faced by the infrastructure projects across the globe. The chapter highlights the significance of transport sector in India and its necessity for economic development of a country. The chapter further narrow down to railway transport infrastructure in India, development of Indian railways in terms passenger & freight traffic growth, route length development, capacity addition of BG, MG & NG, capital expenditure and past investment trends. It also emphasizes on the overrun trend of Indian Railways which is an acute problem of railway infrastructure development. Then, it emphasizes on the role of risk management in mitigating the overruns and need for improvement in the process. Chapter two sets the literature review and theoretical background for the research. A two-part analysis of the literature conducted to critically understand the business problem. The first part is a review related with key terms and their technical significance such as project management and project risk management etc., in construction management; whilst the second part is focuses on the comprehensive literature relevant to Project Risk management into the different theme such as construction project management, project risk management in global scenario, tools and techniques used for risk modelling in construction projects, risk attributes and categories and project risk management in Indian scenario, railway project in India and management of public infrastructure projects. Thematic literature review done to find research gap, business problem from the problem statement, research problem, research questions and three research objectives. Chapter three covers details on research method adapted in the study. The research methodology for objective 01 uses the confirmatory factor analysis, the objective 02 uses the Expected Value Method and objective 03 uses the Expected Value Method and Earned Value Method. Chapter four explains the research work conducted to achieve the objective one i.e. identification of significant risk factors causing the overruns of railway projects in India. Chapter discusses the sampling sufficiency, reliability of scale statistics, and data collection for variables taken from literature review related to overruns of railway projects. It further discusses results and findings for Objective one which is in the form of extracted risk factors by using Confirmatory Factor analysis. Chapter five explains the research work conducted to achieve the objective no two i.e.to identify the exposure of the risk on project activities. The expected value method have used to achieve objective number two. The Activity and risk factor relation have established and survey conducted to identify the likelihood of occurrence, Impact and weightages of the risk on the activities. The Monte Carlo simulation performed to understand the severity of risk factors on various activities. The outcome of the objective two is in the form of Composite Likelihood factor and Composite Impact Factor for all the risk factors on an activity and severity of risk factor on individual activity. The Chapter six explains the research work conducted to achieve the objective no three i.e. to to develop the risk management model in terms of relationship between project risk and project performance. The Expected Value Method and Earned Value Method have used for model development. Outcome of the model is in the form of Quantified effect of risk on the project in terms of cost and time. Chapter seven compiles and lists all conclusions and suggestions. Chapter eight mentions significance of study in International arena and contribution to literature. Chapter nine highlights the future scope and limitation of the study.